NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – U.S. consumer confidence experienced a significant decline in September, marking its lowest point since April 2014. The Conference Board announced that its Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 6.7 points to 81.9, while the August figure was revised downward to 88.6. Data collected from September 1 through September 23 form the basis of this survey. Consumers expressed more pessimism about current economic conditions as well as the outlook for the next six months. This represents the third consecutive month of declining overall confidence.
Early in September, the Present Situation Index dropped 7.9 points to 109.3, reflecting consumers’ views of current business and labor market conditions. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6, marking its third monthly decline. This index measures expectations for income, employment, and business prospects over the upcoming six months. The data indicates that concerns are extending beyond the current environment, with households also feeling less optimistic about future economic conditions.
During September, perceptions of current business conditions became less favorable. Only 18.5% of consumers described current conditions as good, compared to 18.8% in August. Conversely, those describing conditions as bad increased to 20.4% from 17.3%. Assessments of the labor market also shifted downward. About 23.6% reported that jobs were plentiful, down from 24.5% in August, while 21.9% said jobs were hard to find, an increase from 20.3% in the previous month.
Inflation expectations increase amid rising gasoline prices
Over the next year, consumers’ inflation expectations climbed. The average 12-month inflation outlook rose by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, with the median rising to 5.1%. According to federal data, consumer prices increased by 3.4% in August compared to the previous year. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that gasoline prices surged 3.9% in the same month. On September 29, AAA reported that the national average for regular gasoline was close to $4.46 per gallon.
The survey also revealed softer intentions for spending across several major categories. On a six-month moving average, plans to purchase automobiles and homes both declined. Expectations for spending on services, including hotels, movies, air travel, and amusement parks, also decreased during September. Conversely, vacation plans moved in the opposite direction, with about 42.6% of consumers planning trips within six months—a 0.5 percentage point increase from August—mainly driven by more domestic travel plans.
Outlooks for business, employment, and income weaken further
Sentiments regarding future business conditions, employment opportunities, and household income all deteriorated. Only 15.9% of respondents anticipated an improvement in business conditions, down from 17.0% in August. Meanwhile, the percentage expecting conditions to worsen rose to 25.4% from 23.3%. Expectations for increased job availability dropped to 14.0%, while 28.4% believed fewer jobs would be available. Income expectations also softened, with 17.9% expecting income growth and 15.4% forecasting income declines over the next six months.
Additionally, the Conference Board observed a decline in confidence regarding household finances. The net assessments of current family financial situations turned negative for only the second time since the measure’s inception four years ago. Confidence levels declined across all age groups on a six-month moving average, with nearly all income brackets showing lower readings. Toluna conducts this monthly online survey for The Conference Board. The preliminary results for September closed on September 23, and the next Consumer Confidence Index report is scheduled for October 27.